Humble Lions vs Mount Pleasant Academy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for Humble Lions and 1.59 for Mount Pleasant Academy, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Mount Pleasant Academy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Mount Pleasant Academy win

52.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.94 – 1.59

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Humble Lions home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mount Pleasant Academy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 22% / 25% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for Humble Lions and 1.59 for Mount Pleasant Academy, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 49%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Humble Lions win22%

Draw25%

Mount Pleasant Academy win53%

Double chance 1X

47%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

0–112.7%
1–111.9%
0–210.1%
1–29.5%
0–07.9%

Recent form

Humble Lions

2026-10-04T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Treasure Beach · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Portmore United · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-21T22:05:00.000Z · H vs Waterhouse · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Tivoli Gardens · 0-3 (L)
2025-05-04T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 0-4 (L)

Mount Pleasant Academy

2026-08-18T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cibao · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Del Este · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-31T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Robin Hood · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Weymouth Wales · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs All Saints United · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Montego Bay United	6	4	2	0	6	14
2	Racing United	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	Waterhouse	6	3	3	0	13	12
4	Tivoli Gardens	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Tru-Juice	6	3	2	1	7	11
6	Chapelton	6	2	2	2	-6	8
7	Cavalier	5	2	1	2	-1	7
8	Molynes United	6	2	0	4	-7	6
9	Portmore United	3	1	2	0	3	5
10	Arnett Gardens	5	1	2	2	1	5
11	Mount Pleasant Academy	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Dunbeholden	6	1	0	5	-9	3
13	Treasure Beach	5	0	2	3	-4	2
14	Humble Lions	6	0	2	4	-15	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Mount Pleasant Academy win, at 52.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.