Humenné vs Petržalka Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.58 expected goals for Humenné and 1.69 for Petržalka, a combined total of 2.27. That distribution gives Petržalka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Petržalka win

64.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.58 – 1.69

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Humenné home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Petržalka away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Petržalka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 12% / 23% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.58 goals for Humenné and 1.69 for Petržalka, a combined 2.27 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Humenné win12%

Draw23%

Petržalka win64%

Double chance 1X

36%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

88%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

0–117.5%
0–214.7%
0–010.4%
1–110.1%
1–28.6%

Recent form

Humenné

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pohronie · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Žilina II · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Bratislava · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Považská Bystrica · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Petržalka · 0-1 (L)

Petržalka

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Šamorín · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Malženice · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zlaté Moravce · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pohronie · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Bratislava · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Petržalka	12	9	2	1	14	29
2	Šamorín	12	9	1	2	10	28
3	Považská Bystrica	12	7	2	3	4	23
4	Pohronie	12	7	1	4	5	22
5	Žilina II	12	6	2	4	3	20
6	Inter Bratislava	12	5	4	3	12	19
7	Galanta	12	6	1	5	-1	19
8	Tatran Prešov	12	5	3	4	-1	18
9	Liptovský Mikuláš	12	4	4	4	3	16
10	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	12	4	4	4	-1	16
11	Slovan Bratislava II	12	4	3	5	2	15
12	Zlaté Moravce	12	3	4	5	-1	13
13	Malženice	12	3	2	7	-5	11
14	MFK Bytča	12	3	0	9	-18	9
15	Humenné	12	2	2	8	-12	8
16	Lokomotíva Zvolen	12	0	3	9	-14	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Petržalka win, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.