Humenne Football Stadium · Analysis updated 14:10 UTC
Humenné vs Pohronie Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Humenné and 1.10 for Pohronie, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Humenné the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Humenné home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pohronie away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–112.2%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–17.4%
Recent form
Humenné
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pohronie · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Žilina II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Bratislava · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Považská Bystrica · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Petržalka · 0-1 (L)
Pohronie
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Humenné · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Bratislava · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Petržalka · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Druzstevnik Latky · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Liptovský Mikuláš · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-09-23T13:30:00.000Z · Humenné 2-0 Pohronie (Cup)
- 2025-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · Humenné 1-1 Pohronie (2. liga)
- 2024-10-19T12:30:00.000Z · Humenné 1-0 Pohronie (2. liga)
- 2024-03-01T16:00:00.000Z · Humenné 2-1 Pohronie (2. liga)
- 2023-08-12T15:00:00.000Z · Humenné 1-0 Pohronie (2. liga)
- 2023-03-03T16:00:00.000Z · Humenné 1-1 Pohronie (2. liga)
- 2022-08-06T15:00:00.000Z · Humenné 2-1 Pohronie (2. liga)
2. liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petržalka | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 29 |
| 2 | Šamorín | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 28 |
| 3 | Považská Bystrica | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 4 | Pohronie | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 5 | Žilina II | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 6 | Inter Bratislava | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 7 | Galanta | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Tatran Prešov | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 18 |
| 9 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 10 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Slovan Bratislava II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| 12 | Zlaté Moravce | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Malženice | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | MFK Bytča | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -18 | 9 |
| 15 | Humenné | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.