Chemlonský štadión · Referee P. Ochotnicky · Analysis updated 13:01 UTC
Humenné vs Rohožník Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Humenné and 0.98 for Rohožník, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Humenné the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Humenné win
56.8% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Humenné home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rohožník away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Humenné to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Humenné and 0.98 for Rohožník, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.2%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.2%
Recent form
Humenné
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Zlaté Moravce · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Šamorín · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs MFK Bytča · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pohronie · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Žilina II · 0-0 (D)
Rohožník
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Šamorín · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-08-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Malacky · 0-4 (L)
- 2024-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Malacky · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotíva DNV · 0-2 (L)
- 2023-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Vištuk · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Šamorín | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 32 |
| 2 | Petržalka | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 30 |
| 3 | Považská Bystrica | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 26 |
| 4 | Žilina II | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Pohronie | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| 6 | Galanta | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 23 |
| 7 | Tatran Prešov | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 8 | Inter Bratislava | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 9 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 11 | Slovan Bratislava II | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 12 | Malženice | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 15 |
| 13 | Zlaté Moravce | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | Humenné | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 12 |
| 15 | MFK Bytča | 14 | 3 | 0 | 11 | -22 | 9 |
| 16 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -14 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Humenné win, at 56.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.