· Analysis updated 16:46 UTC
Humenné vs Šamorín Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Humenné and 1.74 for Šamorín, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Šamorín the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Šamorín win
58.0% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 1.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Humenné home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Šamorín away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Šamorín to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 19% / 24% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.87 goals for Humenné and 1.74 for Šamorín, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 0–211.2%
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.4%
Recent form
Humenné
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Zlaté Moravce · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Šamorín · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs MFK Bytča · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pohronie · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Žilina II · 0-0 (D)
Šamorín
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Petržalka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Liptovský Mikuláš · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotíva Zvolen · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Prešov · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Galanta · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petržalka | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 30 |
| 2 | Šamorín | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 29 |
| 3 | Pohronie | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 23 |
| 4 | Považská Bystrica | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | Galanta | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 22 |
| 6 | Žilina II | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | Inter Bratislava | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 20 |
| 8 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 9 | Tatran Prešov | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Slovan Bratislava II | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 12 | Zlaté Moravce | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Malženice | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Humenné | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 11 |
| 15 | MFK Bytča | 13 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -19 | 9 |
| 16 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Šamorín win, at 58.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.