· Analysis updated 04:58 UTC
Humenné vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Humenné and 1.67 for Sandecja Nowy Sącz, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Sandecja Nowy Sącz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Humenné home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sandecja Nowy Sącz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sandecja Nowy Sącz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 35% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Humenné and 1.67 for Sandecja Nowy Sącz, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.9%
- 0–17.0%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Humenné
- 2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Galanta · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Zlaté Moravce · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Šamorín · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs MFK Bytča · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pohronie · 0-2 (L)
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
- 2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Środa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Resovia Rzeszów · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Łęczna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Świt Skolwin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Avia Świdnik · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.