· Analysis updated 09:59 UTC
Hummetroth vs Fernwald Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Hummetroth and 2.25 for Fernwald, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Fernwald the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fernwald win
62.2% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hummetroth home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Fernwald away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fernwald to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 18% / 20% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Hummetroth and 2.25 for Fernwald, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 1–18.6%
- 0–28.4%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–37.3%
Recent form
Hummetroth
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rot-Weiß Walldorf · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gießen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Eddersheim · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fernwald · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vfb Marburg · 2-1 (W)
Fernwald
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rot-Weiß Walldorf · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hummetroth · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eddersheim · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gießen · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs TuBa Pohlheim · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · Hummetroth 0-3 Fernwald (Oberliga - Hessen)
- 2025-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · Hummetroth 3-1 Fernwald (Oberliga - Hessen)
Oberliga - Hessen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eintracht Stadtallendorf | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 33 |
| 2 | Unter-Flockenbach | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 32 |
| 3 | Friedberg | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Hadamar | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 27 |
| 5 | Eddersheim | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 25 |
| 6 | Darmstadt 98 II | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 24 |
| 7 | TuBa Pohlheim | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 23 |
| 8 | Fernwald | 15 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 21 |
| 9 | Vfb Marburg | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 21 |
| 10 | Rot-Weiß Walldorf | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 20 |
| 11 | Hünfelder SV | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 19 |
| 12 | Kassel | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 18 |
| 13 | Bayern Alzenau | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 14 | Baunatal | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -7 | 16 |
| 15 | 1960 Hanau | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -14 | 13 |
| 16 | Hummetroth | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 12 |
| 17 | Kassel 2 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -12 | 12 |
| 18 | FC Gießen | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -21 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fernwald win, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.