· Analysis updated 10:01 UTC
Humpolec vs Pelhřimov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Humpolec and 1.83 for Pelhřimov, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Pelhřimov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Pelhřimov win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Humpolec home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pelhřimov away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pelhřimov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 26% / 23% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Humpolec and 1.83 for Pelhřimov, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.4%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.6%
Recent form
Humpolec
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Havlíčkův Brod · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Velká Bíteš · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Znojmo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chotebor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Žďár nad Sázavou · 2-1 (W)
Pelhřimov
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FS Třebíč · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Brno · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bystrc Kníničky · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kuřim · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bedrichov · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kuřim | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 25 |
| 2 | Sparta Brno | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Tatran Bohunice | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 4 | Velká Bíteš | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 24 |
| 5 | Havlíčkův Brod | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 6 | FS Třebíč | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 20 |
| 7 | Znojmo | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 8 | Sokol Tasovice | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 9 | Pelhřimov | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Bystrc Kníničky | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Humpolec | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Ždírec nad Doubravou | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 13 | Chotebor | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 14 | Velké Meziříčí | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -14 | 10 |
| 15 | Žďár nad Sázavou | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Bedrichov | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -41 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pelhřimov win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.