Puskás Aréna · Referee Ante Čulina, Croatia · Analysis updated 21:32 UTC
Hungary vs Finland Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Hungary and 1.14 for Finland, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Hungary the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.2% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hungary home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Finland away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hungary to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 27% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Hungary and 1.14 for Finland, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–08.3%
Recent form
Hungary
- 2026-09-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Northern Ireland · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ukraine · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kazakhstan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-05T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Finland · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Greece · 0-0 (D)
Finland
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Belarus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Albania · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Belarus · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marino · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-06-05T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Hungary · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.