Puskás Aréna · Referee F. Badstubner · Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Hungary vs Greece Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Hungary and 0.95 for Greece, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Hungary the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.9% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hungary home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Greece away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hungary to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 29% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Hungary and 0.95 for Greece, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–011.1%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–08.7%
Recent form
Hungary
- 2026-09-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Northern Ireland · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ukraine · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kazakhstan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-05T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Finland · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Greece · 0-0 (D)
Greece
- 2026-09-27T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Germany · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Serbia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Italy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sweden · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hungary · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-31T17:00:00.000Z · Hungary 0-0 Greece (Friendlies)
- 2022-11-20T19:15:00.000Z · Hungary 2-1 Greece (Friendlies)
- 2018-10-12T18:45:00.000Z · Hungary 0-1 Greece (UEFA Nations League)
- 2018-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · Hungary 2-1 Greece (UEFA Nations League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.