· Analysis updated 08:00 UTC
Hungry Lions vs Upington City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Hungry Lions and 1.45 for Upington City, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Hungry Lions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hungry Lions home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Upington City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.0%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Hungry Lions
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Magesi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs The Bees · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cape Town City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Orbit College · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gomora United FC · 2-2 (D)
Upington City
- 2026-10-23T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Midlands Wanderers · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Orbit College · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Gomora United FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs University of Pretoria · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Venda FC · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T13:00:00.000Z · Hungry Lions 0-0 Upington City (1st Division)
- 2025-12-07T13:30:00.000Z · Hungry Lions 1-0 Upington City (1st Division)
- 2025-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · Hungry Lions 1-0 Upington City (1st Division)
- 2024-12-13T13:30:00.000Z · Hungry Lions 1-1 Upington City (1st Division)
- 2024-02-13T13:30:00.000Z · Hungry Lions 1-1 Upington City (1st Division)
- 2023-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · Hungry Lions 1-1 Upington City (1st Division)
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magesi | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Casric Stars | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Cape Town City | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Hungry Lions | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Upington City | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Lerumo Lions | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Highbury | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Gomora United FC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Hope FC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Leicesterfield | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Midlands Wanderers | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | University of Pretoria | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | NWU FC | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Orbit College | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | The Bees | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Venda FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.