· Analysis updated 05:12 UTC
Huntly vs Inverurie Loco Works Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Huntly and 1.59 for Inverurie Loco Works, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Inverurie Loco Works the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.59
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Huntly home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Inverurie Loco Works away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inverurie Loco Works to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 33% / 24% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for Huntly and 1.59 for Inverurie Loco Works, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–07.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.43 | 63.2% | 65.8% | 1.52 | +2.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.21 | 74.0% | 75.6% | 1.32 | +1.6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.29 | 39.7% | 40.8% | 2.45 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.12 | 42.0% | 42.9% | 2.33 | +0.9 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.15 | 42.7% | 43.5% | 2.30 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 2.77 | 32.2% | 32.7% | 3.06 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.32 | 67.8% | 67.3% | 1.49 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.60 | 57.3% | 56.5% | 1.77 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.54 | 58.1% | 57.1% | 1.75 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.51 | 60.3% | 59.2% | 1.69 | -1.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.45 | 25.8% | 24.4% | 4.10 | -1.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.46 | 36.8% | 34.2% | 2.92 | -2.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Huntly
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Annan Athletic · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Forres Mechanics · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Keith · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Rothes · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Beith · 3-0 (W)
Inverurie Loco Works
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rothes · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Formartine United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Invergordon · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lochee United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Deveronvale · 5-4 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Football League - Highland League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brora Rangers | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 42 | 39 |
| 2 | Inverurie Loco Works | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Formartine United | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 28 |
| 4 | Fraserburgh | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 5 | Banks O' Dee | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 6 | Clachnacuddin | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 23 |
| 7 | Huntly | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 |
| 8 | Strathspey Thistle | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 22 |
| 9 | Forres Mechanics | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 21 |
| 10 | Deveronvale | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| 11 | Nairn County | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 12 | Turriff United | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -1 | 20 |
| 13 | Buckie Thistle | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 19 |
| 14 | Keith | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 18 |
| 15 | Lossiemouth | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 18 |
| 16 | Invergordon | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -21 | 13 |
| 17 | Wick Academy | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | -27 | 10 |
| 18 | Rothes | 15 | 1 | 0 | 14 | -53 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.