· Analysis updated 12:26 UTC
Huracán Balazote vs Marchamalo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Huracán Balazote and 2.20 for Marchamalo, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Marchamalo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Marchamalo win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Huracán Balazote home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marchamalo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marchamalo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 21% / 20% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Huracán Balazote and 2.20 for Marchamalo, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.6%
- 1–18.7%
- 0–27.8%
- 0–17.1%
- 1–37.1%
Recent form
Huracán Balazote
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Almansa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchego · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Marchamalo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Villacañas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarrubia · 0-1 (L)
Marchamalo
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Almansa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tarancón · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchego · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracán Balazote · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 2 | Torrijos | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Tarancón | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Illescas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Toledo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Villarrobledo | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 7 | Noblejas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | CD Villa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Almansa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Villacañas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Marchamalo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 12 | San Clemente | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Villarrubia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | La Solana | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Quintanar del Rey | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Socuéllamos | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Guadalajara II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marchamalo win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.