Estadio Municipal de Balazote · Referee Pablo Pardos · Analysis updated 14:12 UTC
Huracán Balazote vs Torrijos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Huracán Balazote and 1.69 for Torrijos, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Torrijos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Torrijos win
55.2% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Huracán Balazote home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Torrijos away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Torrijos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 21% / 24% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Huracán Balazote and 1.69 for Torrijos, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.3%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.3%
Recent form
Huracán Balazote
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Illescas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarrobledo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Toledo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs San Clemente · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Almansa · 1-3 (L)
Torrijos
- 2026-10-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Villacañas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs La Solana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Noblejas · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarrubia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Quintanar del Rey · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2024-04-27T16:00:00.000Z · Huracán Balazote 1-2 Torrijos (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
- 2023-12-17T15:00:00.000Z · Huracán Balazote 0-0 Torrijos (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
- 2022-02-13T15:30:00.000Z · Huracán Balazote 1-1 Torrijos (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
- 2021-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · Huracán Balazote 3-1 Torrijos (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Toledo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Villarrobledo | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 4 | CD Villa | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Villacañas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Tarancón | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Illescas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Torrijos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Noblejas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | San Clemente | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Almansa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Marchamalo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Villarrubia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Socuéllamos | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | La Solana | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Quintanar del Rey | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Huracán Balazote | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Guadalajara II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Torrijos win, at 55.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.