· Analysis updated 03:53 UTC
Huracán Res. vs Atl. Rafaela 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Huracán Res. and 0.88 for Atl. Rafaela 2, a combined total of 2.06. That distribution gives Huracán Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.7% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Huracán Res. home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atl. Rafaela 2 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Huracán Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 30% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Huracán Res. and 0.88 for Atl. Rafaela 2, a combined 2.06 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.7%
- 0–111.2%
- 2–08.9%
Recent form
Huracán Res.
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atl. Rafaela 2 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Quilmes 2 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes La Plata Res · 1-3 (L)
Atl. Rafaela 2
- 2026-09-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ferro 2 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento Res. · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Res. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colón Res. · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.