Estadio Tomas Adolfo Duco · Referee N. Arasa · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Huracan vs Aldosivi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Huracan and 0.68 for Aldosivi, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Huracan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Huracan win
53.5% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Huracan home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aldosivi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.6%
- 0–012.9%
- 2–012.1%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–18.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.60 (model 63.2% vs market 58.4%, edge +4.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.60 | 58.4% | 63.2% | 1.58 | +4.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.9% | 72.0% | 1.39 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.2% | 18.5% | 5.41 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 28.1% | 28.0% | 3.57 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.70 | 53.7% | 53.5% | 1.87 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 82.0% | 81.5% | 1.23 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 47.1% | 46.5% | 2.15 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.25 | 41.6% | 36.8% | 2.72 | -4.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Huracan
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · A vs River Plate · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Cordoba · 1-1 (D)
Aldosivi
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Huracan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-04T17:45:00.000Z · Huracan 1-0 Aldosivi (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-03-16T18:30:00.000Z · Huracan 0-0 Aldosivi (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-10-12T17:30:00.000Z · Huracan 0-2 Aldosivi (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-04-05T21:00:00.000Z · Huracan 3-3 Aldosivi (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · Huracan 1-0 Aldosivi (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-04-26T00:30:00.000Z · Huracan 2-0 Aldosivi (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-09-04T00:15:00.000Z · Huracan 2-0 Aldosivi (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2020-02-15T20:35:00.000Z · Huracan 0-2 Aldosivi (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2018-08-19T18:30:00.000Z · Huracan 1-2 Aldosivi (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Huracan win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.