Argentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 722:00

1 – 1

Saturday, 29 August 2026

Estadio Tomas Adolfo Duco · Referee Y. Perez · Analysis updated 14:21 UTC

Huracan vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Huracan and 0.55 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Huracan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Huracan win

56.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 0.55

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Huracan home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Huracan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 28% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Huracan and 0.55 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Huracan win57%

Draw28%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals57%

Over 2.5 goals30%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score31%

Correct score

1–020.2%
0–015.0%
2–013.6%
1–111.1%
0–18.2%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.2%), compared with our model probability.

No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Both teams to score	No	1.40	66.3%	68.7%	1.46	+2.4
Double chance	Draw/Away	2.20	42.8%	43.4%	2.30	+0.6
Match result	Home	1.62	56.5%	56.6%	1.77	+0.1
Match result	Draw	3.25	28.2%	28.3%	3.53	+0.1
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.11	84.8%	84.9%	1.18	+0.1
Match result	Away	6.00	15.3%	15.1%	6.62	-0.2
Double chance	Home/Away	1.30	72.4%	71.7%	1.39	-0.7
Both teams to score	Yes	2.75	33.7%	31.3%	3.19	-2.4

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Huracan

2026-10-15T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-04T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · A vs River Plate · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club · 2-1 (W)

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs River Plate · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-05T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-29T22:00:00.000Z · Huracan 1-1 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2026-02-26T22:30:00.000Z · Huracan 0-2 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (Liga Profesional Argentina)

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Instituto Cordoba	13	9	2	2	10	29
2	Boca Juniors	13	6	6	1	7	24
3	Defensa Y Justicia	13	7	3	3	6	24
4	Velez Sarsfield	13	6	6	1	5	24
5	Lanus	13	7	2	4	7	23
6	Newells Old Boys	13	5	5	3	3	20
7	Gimnasia M.	13	6	2	5	2	20
8	Independiente	13	5	4	4	-1	19
9	San Lorenzo	13	5	2	6	-5	17
10	Estudiantes L.P.	13	4	2	7	1	14
11	Union Santa Fe	13	4	2	7	-4	14
12	Deportivo Riestra	13	2	6	5	-3	12
13	Platense	13	2	5	6	-7	11
14	Central Cordoba de Santiago	13	2	4	7	-7	10
15	Talleres Cordoba	13	2	3	8	-8	9
1	Rosario Central	13	7	4	2	9	25
2	Argentinos JRS	13	7	4	2	6	25
3	Belgrano Cordoba	13	6	4	3	4	22
4	Gimnasia L.P.	13	6	4	3	1	22
5	Sarmiento Junin	13	6	3	4	3	21
6	River Plate	13	6	2	5	5	20
7	Barracas Central	13	5	4	4	1	19
8	Huracan	13	5	4	4	0	19
9	Independ. Rivadavia	13	5	4	4	-4	19
10	Atletico Tucuman	13	3	5	5	-1	14
11	Tigre	13	3	4	6	-2	13
12	Banfield	13	3	4	6	-5	13
13	Racing Club	13	3	3	7	-6	12
14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	13	2	3	8	-9	9
15	Aldosivi	13	2	2	9	-8	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Huracan win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.