· Analysis updated 02:12 UTC
Hvězda Cheb vs Slovan Velvary Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hvězda Cheb and 2.50 for Slovan Velvary, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Slovan Velvary the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Slovan Velvary win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hvězda Cheb home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Slovan Velvary away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Slovan Velvary to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 22% / 19% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Hvězda Cheb and 2.50 for Slovan Velvary, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 1–37.2%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–26.4%
- 0–25.7%
Recent form
Hvězda Cheb
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slaný · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Štětí · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Meteor Praha · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Chomutov · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Baník Sokolov · 1-3 (L)
Slovan Velvary
- 2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Rapid Psáry · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavoj Vyšehrad · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Ústí nad Labem II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Újezd Praha 4 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Brandýs nad Labem · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chomutov | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Sokol Hostouň | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Újezd Praha 4 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 24 |
| 4 | Rapid Psáry | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 23 |
| 5 | Slaný | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | Baník Sokolov | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| 7 | Brandýs nad Labem | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 8 | Štětí | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 9 | Karlovy Vary | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Tempo Praha | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 11 | Meteor Praha | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 12 | Slovan Velvary | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 13 | Hvězda Cheb | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -14 | 10 |
| 14 | Slavoj Vyšehrad | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -14 | 10 |
| 15 | Ostrov | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 10 |
| 16 | Ústí nad Labem II | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -21 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Slovan Velvary win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.