Hvidovre Stadium · Referee S. Funder · Analysis updated 16:12 UTC
Hvidovre vs HB Koge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Hvidovre and 1.38 for HB Koge, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Hvidovre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Hvidovre win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hvidovre home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hvidovre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 22% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Hvidovre and 1.38 for HB Koge, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–06.8%
- 1–26.8%
Recent form
Hvidovre
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarhus Fremad · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalborg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hobro · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Fredericia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:30:00.000Z · A vs AB Copenhagen · 1-1 (D)
HB Koge
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · Hvidovre 2-0 HB Koge (1. Division)
- 2026-07-03T10:00:00.000Z · Hvidovre 1-0 HB Koge (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-10-23T16:30:00.000Z · Hvidovre 3-1 HB Koge (1. Division)
- 2025-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · Hvidovre 2-0 HB Koge (1. Division)
- 2025-07-29T16:30:00.000Z · Hvidovre 4-3 HB Koge (DBU Pokalen)
- 2025-07-08T09:00:00.000Z · Hvidovre 4-2 HB Koge (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-11-10T12:00:00.000Z · Hvidovre 0-1 HB Koge (1. Division)
- 2024-07-19T17:00:00.000Z · Hvidovre 1-0 HB Koge (1. Division)
- 2022-11-13T14:00:00.000Z · Hvidovre 3-1 HB Koge (1. Division)
- 2022-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · Hvidovre 1-0 HB Koge (1. Division)
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hvidovre | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Vejle | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | FC Fredericia | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Aarhus Fremad | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Aalborg | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Hobro | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 7 | Vendsyssel FF | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | AB Copenhagen | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Hillerød | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Kolding IF | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | HB Koge | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 12 | Esbjerg | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hvidovre win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.