Hwaseong vs Asan Mugunghwa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Hwaseong and 1.20 for Asan Mugunghwa, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Hwaseong the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hwaseong home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Asan Mugunghwa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hwaseong to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 27% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Hwaseong and 1.20 for Asan Mugunghwa, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hwaseong win40%

Draw27%

Asan Mugunghwa win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.6%
1–010.5%
0–19.4%
2–18.5%
0–07.8%

Recent form

Hwaseong

2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Seongnam FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ansan Greeners · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheonan City · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheongju · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-23T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Jeonnam Dragons · 0-1 (L)

Asan Mugunghwa

2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Suwon City FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-17T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gyeongnam FC · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimhae City · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheonan City · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheongju · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

K League 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Suwon Bluewings	28	19	5	4	25	62
2	Suwon City FC	28	15	9	4	22	54
3	Seoul E-Land FC	28	16	6	6	20	54
4	Daegu FC	28	15	7	6	17	52
5	Busan I Park	29	14	6	9	10	48
6	Hwaseong	29	12	9	8	12	45
7	Asan Mugunghwa	28	10	9	9	4	39
8	Gimpo Citizen	28	9	11	8	2	38
9	Gyeongnam FC	28	8	11	9	-2	35
10	Cheongju	29	6	14	9	-12	32
11	Seongnam FC	28	7	10	11	-7	31
12	Paju Citizen	28	8	7	13	-7	31
13	Yongin City	28	6	12	10	-7	30
14	Cheonan City	28	6	11	11	-4	29
15	Ansan Greeners	29	7	4	18	-23	25
16	Jeonnam Dragons	28	5	9	14	-17	24
17	Gimhae City	28	3	8	17	-33	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.