Hythe Garage Stadium · Analysis updated 22:18 UTC
Hythe & Dibden vs Portland United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Hythe & Dibden and 1.49 for Portland United, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives Hythe & Dibden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hythe & Dibden win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hythe & Dibden home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portland United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hythe & Dibden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Hythe & Dibden and 1.49 for Portland United, a combined 3.44 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.3%
Recent form
Hythe & Dibden
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Laverstock & Ford · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs New Milton Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portland United · 3-1 (W)
- 2024-08-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Andover New Street · 2-4 (L)
- 2023-08-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hamble Club · 1-5 (L)
Portland United
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Thame United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Portchester · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hungerford Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hythe & Dibden · 1-3 (L)
- 2024-08-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamworthy Recreation · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · Hythe & Dibden 3-1 Portland United (FA Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hythe & Dibden win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.