· Referee G. Haflidason Oddur · Analysis updated 14:46 UTC
IA Akranes vs Thor Akureyri Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for IA Akranes and 1.60 for Thor Akureyri, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives IA Akranes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
IA Akranes win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
IA Akranes home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thor Akureyri away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.7%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–26.1%
Recent form
IA Akranes
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FH hafnarfjordur · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Thor Akureyri · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vikingur Reykjavik · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-26T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Stjarnan · 5-1 (W)
Thor Akureyri
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stjarnan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs KA Akureyri · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Valur Reykjavik · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FH hafnarfjordur · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · IA Akranes 2-0 Thor Akureyri (Úrvalsdeild)
- 2026-05-17T16:00:00.000Z · IA Akranes 2-1 Thor Akureyri (Úrvalsdeild)
- 2026-02-07T15:00:00.000Z · IA Akranes 1-1 Thor Akureyri (League Cup)
- 2023-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · IA Akranes 3-2 Thor Akureyri (1. Deild)
- 2023-06-29T18:00:00.000Z · IA Akranes 4-0 Thor Akureyri (1. Deild)
- 2022-02-12T14:00:00.000Z · IA Akranes 3-1 Thor Akureyri (League Cup)
- 2019-03-01T20:00:00.000Z · IA Akranes 4-1 Thor Akureyri (League Cup)
- 2018-07-27T18:00:00.000Z · IA Akranes 5-0 Thor Akureyri (1. Deild)
- 2018-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · IA Akranes 1-0 Thor Akureyri (1. Deild)
Úrvalsdeild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 46 | 53 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 45 |
| 3 | KR Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 44 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | IA Akranes | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 28 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 27 |
| 9 | FH hafnarfjordur | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | -12 | 21 |
| 10 | Thor Akureyri | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -28 | 21 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -13 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is IA Akranes win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.