· Analysis updated 12:03 UTC
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Constància Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Ibiza Islas Pitiusas and 0.89 for Constància, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Ibiza Islas Pitiusas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.09 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Constància away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ibiza Islas Pitiusas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 31% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.09 goals for Ibiza Islas Pitiusas and 0.89 for Constància, a combined 1.98 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 0–013.8%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.3%
- 2–08.2%
Recent form
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Ibiza · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Formentera · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Andratx · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sineu · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Migjorn · 3-1 (W)
Constància
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Llosetense · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Porreres · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Mercadal · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Alcúdia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardassar · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Constància | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Manacor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Platges Calvià | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Cardassar | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Santanyí | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Formentera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | PE Sant Jordi | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Llosetense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Alcúdia | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Porreres | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Binissalem | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 14 | Andratx | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Arenal | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 | Migjorn | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Sineu | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | Inter Ibiza | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.