· Analysis updated 13:25 UTC
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Mercadal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Ibiza Islas Pitiusas and 0.77 for Mercadal, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Ibiza Islas Pitiusas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mercadal away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ibiza Islas Pitiusas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 24% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Ibiza Islas Pitiusas and 0.77 for Mercadal, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.7%
Recent form
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Andratx · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sineu · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Migjorn · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Platges Calvià · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ibiza · 0-1 (L)
Mercadal
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Santanyí · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arenal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Ibiza · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Formentera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcúdia · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manacor | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Cardassar | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Constància | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Llosetense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Platges Calvià | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Santanyí | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Porreres | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Formentera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | PE Sant Jordi | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Alcúdia | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Andratx | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Binissalem | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 15 | Arenal | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | Migjorn | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 17 | Inter Ibiza | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 18 | Sineu | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ibiza Islas Pitiusas win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.