· Analysis updated 13:14 UTC
Ibrachina U20 vs Velo Clube U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Ibrachina U20 and 0.63 for Velo Clube U20, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Ibrachina U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ibrachina U20 win
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ibrachina U20 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ibrachina U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 23% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Ibrachina U20 and 0.63 for Velo Clube U20, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 38%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 2–014.1%
- 1–110.4%
- 0–09.7%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Ibrachina U20
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Capivariano U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Capivariano U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Paulinense SP U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Paulinense SP U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs São Caetano U20 · 4-0 (W)
Velo Clube U20
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ibrachina U20 win, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.