· Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
Icasa vs Cariri Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Icasa and 0.71 for Cariri, a combined total of 2.19. That distribution gives Icasa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Icasa win
55.5% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Icasa home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cariri away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Icasa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 27% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Icasa and 0.71 for Cariri, a combined 2.19 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–011.2%
- 2–18.7%
Recent form
Icasa
- 2026-06-14T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Itapipoca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Itapipoca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-30T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Crateús · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Crateús · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarani De Juazeiro · 2-1 (W)
Cariri
- 2026-05-20T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Crateús · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Barbalha · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Crato · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-25T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Icasa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarani De Juazeiro · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cearense - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Icasa | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Crato | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Cariri | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 4 | Barbalha | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 5 | Guarani De Juazeiro | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 1 | Itapipoca | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Crateús | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Guarany de Sobral | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Caucaia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 11 |
| 5 | Uniclinic Atletico Clube | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Icasa win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.