· Referee L. Zufferli · Analysis updated 15:05 UTC
Iceland U21 vs France U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Iceland U21 and 1.97 for France U21, a combined total of 3.29. That distribution gives France U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
France U21 win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
France U21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates France U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 26% / 22% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for Iceland U21 and 1.97 for France U21, a combined 3.29 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–17.3%
- 0–27.2%
- 2–16.4%
Recent form
Iceland U21
France U21
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Estonia U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Japan U18 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ukraine U18 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Iceland U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria U18 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is France U21 win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.