IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.65 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives IF Elfsborg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

IF Elfsborg win

62.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 0.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

IF Elfsborg home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kalmar FF away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates IF Elfsborg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 23% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.65 for Kalmar FF, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

IF Elfsborg win63%

Draw23%

Kalmar FF win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–016.2%
2–013.8%
1–110.5%
0–09.5%
2–19.0%

Recent form

IF Elfsborg

2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Djurgardens IF · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalmar FF · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs IF Brommapojkarna · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Degerfors IF · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Goteborg · 1-1 (D)

Kalmar FF

2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Norrkoping · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BK Hacken · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Elfsborg · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Djurgardens IF · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Halmstad · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Allsvenskan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sirius	23	17	3	3	25	54
2	Djurgardens IF	23	14	2	7	27	44
3	Hammarby FF	23	13	4	6	28	43
4	IF Elfsborg	23	11	7	5	13	40
5	BK Hacken	23	10	9	4	12	39
6	Malmo FF	23	11	3	9	5	36
7	Vasteras SK FK	23	10	5	8	-2	35
8	IFK Goteborg	23	10	5	8	-9	35
9	AIK Stockholm	23	9	6	8	-4	33
10	Gais	23	8	6	9	7	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	23	8	6	9	-5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	23	5	8	10	-11	23
13	Degerfors IF	23	5	5	13	-15	20
14	Kalmar FF	23	5	4	14	-16	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	3	6	14	-27	15
16	Halmstad	23	3	5	15	-28	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is IF Elfsborg win, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.