IF Elfsborg vs Sirius Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.95 for Sirius, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Sirius the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sirius win

52.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

IF Elfsborg home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sirius away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sirius to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 25% / 22% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.95 for Sirius, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

IF Elfsborg win25%

Draw22%

Sirius win53%

Double chance 1X

47%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–19.8%
1–29.6%
0–17.6%
0–27.4%
2–16.4%

Recent form

IF Elfsborg

2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Djurgardens IF · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalmar FF · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs IF Brommapojkarna · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Degerfors IF · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Goteborg · 1-1 (D)

Sirius

2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Orgryte IS · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T17:20:00.000Z · H vs Degerfors IF · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasteras SK FK · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Malmo FF · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Friska Viljor · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Allsvenskan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sirius	23	17	3	3	25	54
2	Djurgardens IF	23	14	2	7	27	44
3	Hammarby FF	23	13	4	6	28	43
4	IF Elfsborg	23	11	7	5	13	40
5	BK Hacken	23	10	9	4	12	39
6	Malmo FF	23	11	3	9	5	36
7	Vasteras SK FK	23	10	5	8	-2	35
8	IFK Goteborg	23	10	5	8	-9	35
9	AIK Stockholm	23	9	6	8	-4	33
10	Gais	23	8	6	9	7	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	23	8	6	9	-5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	23	5	8	10	-11	23
13	Degerfors IF	23	5	5	13	-15	20
14	Kalmar FF	23	5	4	14	-16	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	3	6	14	-27	15
16	Halmstad	23	3	5	15	-28	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sirius win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.