· Analysis updated 02:10 UTC
IF Gnistan vs HPS W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for IF Gnistan and 1.64 for HPS W, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives HPS W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
HPS W win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
IF Gnistan home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
HPS W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HPS W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 29% / 24% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for IF Gnistan and 1.64 for HPS W, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–19.1%
- 0–27.5%
- 2–17.1%
Recent form
IF Gnistan
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Åland United W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Ilves W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs HJK W · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs HPS W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs KuPS W · 0-2 (L)
HPS W
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilves W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs HJK W · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Åland United W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilves W · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kansallinen Liiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK W | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 39 |
| 2 | Åland United W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 28 |
| 3 | KuPS W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | HPS W | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Ilves W | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa W | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 8 | VIFK W | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | -32 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is HPS W win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.