IF Karlstad vs Karlberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for IF Karlstad and 1.25 for Karlberg, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives IF Karlstad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

IF Karlstad home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Karlberg away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates IF Karlstad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 27% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for IF Karlstad and 1.25 for Karlberg, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

IF Karlstad win38%

Draw27%

Karlberg win36%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–010.2%
0–19.8%
2–18.2%
1–27.9%

Recent form

IF Karlstad

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Piteå · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Karlberg · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Enköping · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FBK Karlstad · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stocksund · 1-2 (L)

Karlberg

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FBK Karlstad · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasalund · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sollentuna · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Karlstad · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stockholm Internazionale · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ettan - Norra table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Stockholm Internazionale	28	20	4	4	45	64
2	AFC Eskilstuna	28	16	5	7	17	53
3	Arlanda	28	15	6	7	15	51
4	Enköping	28	16	3	9	3	51
5	Hammarby Talang	28	14	7	7	26	49
6	FBK Karlstad	28	13	7	8	6	46
7	IF Karlstad	28	12	8	8	11	44
8	Umeå FC	28	11	6	11	-4	39
9	Assyriska FF	28	10	5	13	-5	35
10	Gefle IF	28	10	5	13	-13	35
11	Karlberg	28	9	7	12	-10	34
12	Sollentuna	28	7	10	11	-7	31
13	Vasalund	28	7	7	14	-22	28
14	Piteå	28	5	9	14	-18	24
15	Järfälla	28	6	5	17	-21	23
16	Stocksund	28	3	6	19	-23	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.