· Analysis updated 16:36 UTC
IF Karlstad vs Sandviken Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for IF Karlstad and 1.30 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives IF Karlstad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.2% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
IF Karlstad home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sandviken away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates IF Karlstad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for IF Karlstad and 1.30 for Sandviken, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–19.7%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
IF Karlstad
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Piteå · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Karlberg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Enköping · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FBK Karlstad · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stocksund · 1-2 (L)
Sandviken
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ostersunds FK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Landskrona BoIS · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs GIF Sundsvall · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Orebro SK · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs IK brage · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.