IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.43 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives IFK Goteborg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

IFK Goteborg win

47.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

IFK Goteborg home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Orgryte IS away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates IFK Goteborg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 23% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.43 for Orgryte IS, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

IFK Goteborg win48%

Draw23%

Orgryte IS win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.0%
2–19.2%
1–27.1%
1–07.0%
2–26.6%

Recent form

IFK Goteborg

2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasteras SK FK · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arka Gdynia · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Brommapojkarna · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Halmstad · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mjallby AIF · 4-1 (W)

Orgryte IS

2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Sirius · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Malmo FF · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hammarby FF · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs IFK Goteborg · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-25T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Eskilsminne · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · IFK Goteborg 1-0 Orgryte IS (Allsvenskan)
2026-05-19T13:00:00.000Z · IFK Goteborg 3-2 Orgryte IS (Allsvenskan)

Allsvenskan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sirius	23	17	3	3	25	54
2	Djurgardens IF	23	14	2	7	27	44
3	Hammarby FF	23	13	4	6	28	43
4	IF Elfsborg	23	11	7	5	13	40
5	BK Hacken	23	10	9	4	12	39
6	Malmo FF	23	11	3	9	5	36
7	Vasteras SK FK	23	10	5	8	-2	35
8	IFK Goteborg	23	10	5	8	-9	35
9	AIK Stockholm	23	9	6	8	-4	33
10	Gais	23	8	6	9	7	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	23	8	6	9	-5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	23	5	8	10	-11	23
13	Degerfors IF	23	5	5	13	-15	20
14	Kalmar FF	23	5	4	14	-16	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	3	6	14	-27	15
16	Halmstad	23	3	5	15	-28	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is IFK Goteborg win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.