Gamla Ullevi · Referee Richard Sundell, Sweden · Analysis updated 14:15 UTC
IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 0.89 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives IFK Goteborg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
IFK Goteborg win
55.5% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
IFK Goteborg home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vasteras SK FK away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates IFK Goteborg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for IFK Goteborg and 0.89 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 52.3% vs market 42.4%, edge +9.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.4% | 52.3% | 1.91 | +9.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 79.0% | 79.9% | 1.25 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 55.2% | 55.5% | 1.80 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 24.3% | 24.4% | 4.10 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.8% | 75.6% | 1.32 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.50 | 20.5% | 20.1% | 4.98 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 45.1% | 44.5% | 2.25 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.6% | 47.7% | 2.10 | -9.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
IFK Goteborg
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gais · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs AIK Stockholm · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasteras SK FK · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arka Gdynia · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Brommapojkarna · 1-0 (W)
Vasteras SK FK
- 2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Halmstad · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjallby AIF · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Goteborg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hammarby FF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Malmo FF · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · IFK Goteborg 5-4 Vasteras SK FK (Allsvenskan)
- 2024-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · IFK Goteborg 1-1 Vasteras SK FK (Allsvenskan)
- 2024-07-21T14:30:00.000Z · IFK Goteborg 1-1 Vasteras SK FK (Allsvenskan)
- 2020-02-22T15:30:00.000Z · IFK Goteborg 2-0 Vasteras SK FK (Svenska Cupen)
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 55 |
| 2 | Hammarby FF | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 49 |
| 3 | Djurgardens IF | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 48 |
| 4 | BK Hacken | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 17 | 45 |
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 42 |
| 6 | Vasteras SK FK | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | -2 | 38 |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 37 |
| 9 | IFK Goteborg | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | -9 | 37 |
| 10 | IF Brommapojkarna | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 33 |
| 11 | Gais | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 31 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -14 | 23 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | -18 | 22 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -20 | 20 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 25 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -25 | 19 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | -28 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is IFK Goteborg win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.