· Analysis updated 23:46 UTC
IFK Luleå vs Lucksta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for IFK Luleå and 1.40 for Lucksta, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives IFK Luleå the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
IFK Luleå win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
IFK Luleå home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lucksta away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates IFK Luleå to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 22% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for IFK Luleå and 1.40 for Lucksta, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–06.7%
- 1–06.6%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
IFK Luleå
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Östersund · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gottne · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Skellefteå · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kubikenborg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lucksta · 3-1 (W)
Lucksta
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Östersund · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Täfteå · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Luleå · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kubikenborg · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gottne · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · IFK Luleå 3-1 Lucksta (Division 2 - Norrland)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · IFK Luleå 1-0 Lucksta (Division 2 - Norrland)
- 2024-08-24T11:00:00.000Z · IFK Luleå 1-0 Lucksta (Division 2 - Norrland)
- 2024-05-18T11:00:00.000Z · IFK Luleå 0-4 Lucksta (Division 2 - Norrland)
Division 2 - Norrland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skellefteå | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 27 |
| 1 | Kubikenborg | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Täfteå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 25 |
| 2 | Gottne | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | IFK Luleå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Lucksta | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 | Boden | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | IFK Östersund | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Umeå FC Akademi | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 11 |
| 5 | Friska Viljor | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Storfors | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 8 |
| 6 | Umea FF | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | IFK Umeå | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -28 | 4 |
| 7 | Fransta | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is IFK Luleå win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.