Sweden · Division 2 - Norrland · Norrland - Promotion Round11:00
IFK LuleåLWLWW

11:00 UTC

Saturday, 5 September 2026

TäfteåDWWWL

· Analysis updated 01:49 UTC

IFK Luleå vs Täfteå Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for IFK Luleå and 1.73 for Täfteå, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives IFK Luleå the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

IFK Luleå or Draw

64.7% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.92 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

IFK Luleå win43%
Draw22%
Täfteå win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%
Over 2.5 goals71%
Over 3.5 goals49%
Both teams to score70%

Correct score

  • 1–18.7%
  • 2–18.3%
  • 1–27.5%
  • 2–27.2%
  • 3–15.3%

Why the model likes this

  • Täfteå away threat

    Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates IFK Luleå to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 22% / 35% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.92 goals for IFK Luleå and 1.73 for Täfteå, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 70%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

IFK Luleå

    Täfteå

    • 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kubikenborg · 1-3 (L)
    • 2026-08-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Skellefteå · 0-2 (L)
    • 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Boden · 1-2 (L)
    • 2026-08-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gottne · 3-1 (W)
    • 2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Umeå FC · 0-1 (L)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Division 2 - Norrland table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Skellefteå128311827
    2Täfteå128132125
    3IFK Luleå128131825
    4Boden12453117
    5Umeå FC Akademi12255-1211
    6Storfors12228-188
    7IFK Umeå121110-284
    1Kubikenborg12723923
    2Gottne12723523
    3Lucksta12534018
    4IFK Östersund12453317
    5Friska Viljor12264212
    6Umea FF12255-411
    7Fransta12237-159

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.