IFK Norrkoping vs Falkenbergs FF Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.20 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives IFK Norrkoping the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

IFK Norrkoping win

55.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

IFK Norrkoping home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Falkenbergs FF away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

IFK Norrkoping win56%

Draw22%

Falkenbergs FF win23%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–19.8%
2–19.8%
1–08.2%
2–08.2%
3–16.5%

Recent form

IFK Norrkoping

2026-10-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Orebro SK · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs GIF Sundsvall · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalmar FF · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Osters IF · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oddevold · 0-0 (D)

Falkenbergs FF

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Varnamo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ostersunds FK · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ljungskile SK · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Osters IF · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oddevold · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-24T17:05:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 2-1 Falkenbergs FF (Superettan)
2026-05-05T17:00:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 0-1 Falkenbergs FF (Superettan)
2020-11-23T18:00:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 4-1 Falkenbergs FF (Allsvenskan)
2020-07-26T12:30:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 3-3 Falkenbergs FF (Allsvenskan)
2020-03-07T15:30:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 1-0 Falkenbergs FF (Svenska Cupen)
2019-09-29T15:30:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 2-0 Falkenbergs FF (Allsvenskan)
2019-04-19T14:00:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 4-3 Falkenbergs FF (Allsvenskan)
2016-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 2-1 Falkenbergs FF (Allsvenskan)
2016-04-22T17:00:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 1-2 Falkenbergs FF (Allsvenskan)

Superettan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	27	18	5	4	36	59
2	Falkenbergs FF	27	15	6	6	15	51
3	Ostersunds FK	28	12	12	4	12	48
4	Varbergs BoIS FC	27	13	7	7	11	46
5	Landskrona BoIS	27	12	7	8	13	43
6	Oddevold	28	11	9	8	11	42
7	Osters IF	28	13	3	12	1	42
8	United Nordic	28	10	9	9	-6	39
9	Sandviken	28	10	8	10	6	38
10	Ljungskile SK	27	8	8	11	-1	32
11	IFK Varnamo	28	9	5	14	-13	32
12	Helsingborg	27	8	7	12	-11	31
13	Norrby IF	27	5	12	10	-6	27
14	IK brage	28	6	8	14	-10	26
15	Orebro SK	27	5	11	11	-12	26
16	GIF Sundsvall	28	6	1	21	-46	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is IFK Norrkoping win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.