IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 0.73 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives IFK Norrkoping the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

IFK Norrkoping win

66.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.98 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

IFK Norrkoping home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
GIF Sundsvall away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates IFK Norrkoping to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 20% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for IFK Norrkoping and 0.73 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

IFK Norrkoping win67%

Draw20%

GIF Sundsvall win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–013.3%
2–013.1%
1–19.6%
2–19.5%
3–08.6%

Recent form

IFK Norrkoping

2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Osters IF · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oddevold · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Varbergs BoIS FC · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ljungskile SK · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs United Nordic · 3-1 (W)

GIF Sundsvall

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Varnamo · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Norrkoping · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandviken · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ljungskile SK · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Landskrona BoIS · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Superettan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	27	18	5	4	36	59
2	Falkenbergs FF	27	15	6	6	15	51
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	27	13	7	7	11	46
4	Ostersunds FK	27	11	12	4	9	45
5	Landskrona BoIS	27	12	7	8	13	43
6	Oddevold	27	10	9	8	4	39
7	Osters IF	27	12	3	12	0	39
8	United Nordic	27	10	9	8	-3	39
9	Sandviken	27	9	8	10	5	35
10	Ljungskile SK	27	8	8	11	-1	32
11	IFK Varnamo	27	9	5	13	-12	32
12	Helsingborg	27	8	7	12	-11	31
13	Norrby IF	27	5	12	10	-6	27
14	IK brage	27	6	8	13	-9	26
15	Orebro SK	27	5	11	11	-12	26
16	GIF Sundsvall	27	6	1	20	-39	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is IFK Norrkoping win, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.