Norrkopings Idrottspark · Referee Rambod Beigi, Sweden · Analysis updated 15:21 UTC
IFK Norrkoping vs IK brage Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.08 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives IFK Norrkoping the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
IFK Norrkoping win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
IFK Norrkoping home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
IK brage away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates IFK Norrkoping to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.08 for IK brage, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
IFK Norrkoping
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Osters IF · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oddevold · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Varbergs BoIS FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ljungskile SK · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs United Nordic · 3-1 (W)
IK brage
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Varbergs BoIS FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandviken · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ostersunds FK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs GIF Sundsvall · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Falkenbergs FF · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superettan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IFK Norrkoping | 26 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 36 | 58 |
| 2 | Falkenbergs FF | 27 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 51 |
| 3 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 45 |
| 4 | Ostersunds FK | 27 | 11 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 45 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 43 |
| 6 | Oddevold | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 39 |
| 7 | Osters IF | 27 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 39 |
| 8 | United Nordic | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | -3 | 39 |
| 9 | Sandviken | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 35 |
| 10 | Ljungskile SK | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 11 | Helsingborg | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -11 | 30 |
| 12 | IFK Varnamo | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | -13 | 29 |
| 13 | Norrby IF | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | -6 | 27 |
| 14 | IK brage | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | -9 | 26 |
| 15 | Orebro SK | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 26 | 6 | 1 | 19 | -38 | 19 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is IFK Norrkoping win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.