· Analysis updated 01:36 UTC
IFK Norrkoping vs Kalmar FF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 0.91 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives IFK Norrkoping the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
IFK Norrkoping win
58.5% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
IFK Norrkoping home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kalmar FF away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates IFK Norrkoping to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 23% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for IFK Norrkoping and 0.91 for Kalmar FF, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.9%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.6%
Recent form
IFK Norrkoping
- 2026-10-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Orebro SK · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs GIF Sundsvall · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalmar FF · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Osters IF · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oddevold · 0-0 (D)
Kalmar FF
- 2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Norrkoping · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BK Hacken · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Elfsborg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Djurgardens IF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Halmstad · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is IFK Norrkoping win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.