Idrottsparken · Referee Adam Ladeback · Analysis updated 10:48 UTC
IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 0.90 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives IFK Norrkoping the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
IFK Norrkoping win
57.4% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
IFK Norrkoping home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Orebro SK away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.4%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 51.0% vs market 40.6%, edge +10.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.6% | 51.0% | 1.96 | +10.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 42.0% | 42.5% | 2.35 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 23.1% | 23.4% | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.57 | 57.3% | 57.4% | 1.74 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 80.7% | 80.8% | 1.24 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.60 | 19.6% | 19.1% | 5.24 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.4% | 76.5% | 1.31 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 59.4% | 49.0% | 2.04 | -10.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
IFK Norrkoping
- 2026-10-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Orebro SK · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs GIF Sundsvall · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalmar FF · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Osters IF · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oddevold · 0-0 (D)
Orebro SK
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandviken · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs United Nordic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs GIF Sundsvall · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:05:00.000Z · H vs Ostersunds FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Helsingborg · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-21T17:00:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 1-2 Orebro SK (Superettan)
- 2025-02-22T12:00:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 4-2 Orebro SK (Svenska Cupen)
- 2021-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 3-0 Orebro SK (Allsvenskan)
- 2021-06-24T11:30:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 1-0 Orebro SK (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-05-02T13:00:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 3-0 Orebro SK (Allsvenskan)
- 2020-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 3-4 Orebro SK (Allsvenskan)
- 2020-07-16T17:00:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 2-0 Orebro SK (Allsvenskan)
- 2019-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 3-0 Orebro SK (Allsvenskan)
- 2019-05-16T17:00:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 2-1 Orebro SK (Allsvenskan)
- 2018-11-04T14:00:00.000Z · IFK Norrkoping 3-2 Orebro SK (Allsvenskan)
Superettan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IFK Norrkoping | 27 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 59 |
| 2 | Falkenbergs FF | 27 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 51 |
| 3 | Ostersunds FK | 28 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 48 |
| 4 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 46 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 43 |
| 6 | Oddevold | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Osters IF | 28 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 42 |
| 8 | United Nordic | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | -6 | 39 |
| 9 | Sandviken | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 38 |
| 10 | Ljungskile SK | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 11 | IFK Varnamo | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -13 | 32 |
| 12 | Helsingborg | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -11 | 31 |
| 13 | Norrby IF | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | -6 | 27 |
| 14 | IK brage | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -10 | 26 |
| 15 | Orebro SK | 27 | 5 | 11 | 11 | -12 | 26 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 28 | 6 | 1 | 21 | -46 | 19 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is IFK Norrkoping win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.