IFK Östersund vs Lucksta Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for IFK Östersund and 1.75 for Lucksta, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives IFK Östersund the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.98 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

IFK Östersund home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lucksta away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

IFK Östersund win44%

Draw21%

Lucksta win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–18.3%
2–18.2%
1–27.3%
2–27.2%
3–15.4%

Recent form

IFK Östersund

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Luleå · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kubikenborg · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucksta · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Boden · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Täfteå · 1-2 (L)

Lucksta

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Östersund · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Täfteå · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Luleå · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kubikenborg · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gottne · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · IFK Östersund 1-0 Lucksta (Division 2 - Norrland)
2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · IFK Östersund 4-2 Lucksta (Division 2 - Norrland)
2026-04-12T10:30:00.000Z · IFK Östersund 4-2 Lucksta (Division 2 - Norrland)
2025-06-28T11:00:00.000Z · IFK Östersund 8-2 Lucksta (Division 2 - Norrland)
2025-04-13T14:00:00.000Z · IFK Östersund 4-1 Lucksta (Division 2 - Norrland)
2024-09-07T12:00:00.000Z · IFK Östersund 1-1 Lucksta (Division 2 - Norrland)
2024-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · IFK Östersund 2-1 Lucksta (Division 2 - Norrland)
2023-07-01T11:00:00.000Z · IFK Östersund 3-5 Lucksta (Svenska Cupen)
2022-07-03T13:00:00.000Z · IFK Östersund 3-1 Lucksta (Svenska Cupen)

Division 2 - Norrland table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Skellefteå	12	8	3	1	18	27
1	Kubikenborg	12	7	2	3	9	23
2	Täfteå	12	8	1	3	21	25
2	Gottne	12	7	2	3	5	23
3	IFK Luleå	12	8	1	3	18	25
3	Lucksta	12	5	3	4	0	18
4	Boden	12	4	5	3	1	17
4	IFK Östersund	12	4	5	3	3	17
5	Umeå FC Akademi	12	2	5	5	-12	11
5	Friska Viljor	12	2	6	4	2	12
6	Storfors	12	2	2	8	-18	8
6	Umea FF	12	2	5	5	-4	11
7	IFK Umeå	12	1	1	10	-28	4
7	Fransta	12	2	3	7	-15	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.