· Analysis updated 03:49 UTC
IFK Skövde vs Falkenbergs FF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for IFK Skövde and 1.14 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives IFK Skövde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
IFK Skövde home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Falkenbergs FF away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates IFK Skövde to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for IFK Skövde and 1.14 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–07.8%
Recent form
IFK Skövde
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Stenungsund · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Karlstad II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Husqvarna · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tord · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kumla · 0-0 (D)
Falkenbergs FF
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Varnamo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ostersunds FK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ljungskile SK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Osters IF · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oddevold · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.