· Analysis updated 06:37 UTC
IFK Umeå vs Fransta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for IFK Umeå and 2.13 for Fransta, a combined total of 3.79. That distribution gives Fransta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fransta win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
IFK Umeå home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fransta away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fransta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 30% / 21% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for IFK Umeå and 2.13 for Fransta, a combined 3.79 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.5%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
IFK Umeå
- 2026-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Umeå FC Akademi · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Umea FF · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Storfors · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fransta · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Friska Viljor · 2-3 (L)
Fransta
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bergnäsets · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Umea FF · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Storfors · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Umeå FC Akademi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Friska Viljor · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 - Norrland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skellefteå | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 27 |
| 1 | Kubikenborg | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Täfteå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 25 |
| 2 | Gottne | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | IFK Luleå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Lucksta | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 | Boden | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | IFK Östersund | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Umeå FC Akademi | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 11 |
| 5 | Friska Viljor | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Storfors | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 8 |
| 6 | Umea FF | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | IFK Umeå | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -28 | 4 |
| 7 | Fransta | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fransta win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.