· Analysis updated 05:50 UTC
IFK Umeå vs Friska Viljor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for IFK Umeå and 2.84 for Friska Viljor, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Friska Viljor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Friska Viljor win
73.0% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 2.84
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
IFK Umeå home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Friska Viljor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Friska Viljor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 12% / 15% / 73% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for IFK Umeå and 2.84 for Friska Viljor, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
27%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–27.8%
- 0–37.4%
- 1–16.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 2.15 | 42.8% | 44.6% | 2.24 | +1.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.07 | 84.2% | 85.1% | 1.18 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 1.24 | 72.5% | 73.0% | 1.37 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 7.60 | 11.8% | 12.1% | 8.26 | +0.3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.47 | 36.8% | 37.1% | 2.70 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 3.68 | 24.6% | 24.8% | 4.03 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.20 | 75.4% | 75.2% | 1.33 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 63.2% | 62.9% | 1.59 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.02 | 88.3% | 87.9% | 1.14 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 3.28 | 27.5% | 27.0% | 3.70 | -0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.75 | 15.6% | 14.9% | 6.71 | -0.7 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 1.61 | 57.2% | 55.4% | 1.81 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
IFK Umeå
- 2026-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Umeå FC Akademi · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Umea FF · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Storfors · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fransta · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Friska Viljor · 2-3 (L)
Friska Viljor
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Umeå · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Umea FF · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Storfors · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Fransta · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Umeå FC Akademi · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 - Norrland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skellefteå | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 27 |
| 1 | Kubikenborg | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Täfteå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 25 |
| 2 | Gottne | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | IFK Luleå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Lucksta | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 | Boden | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | IFK Östersund | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Umeå FC Akademi | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 11 |
| 5 | Friska Viljor | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Storfors | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 8 |
| 6 | Umea FF | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | IFK Umeå | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -28 | 4 |
| 7 | Fransta | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Friska Viljor win, at 73.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.