Iğdır FK vs Amed Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Iğdır FK and 1.60 for Amed, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Amed the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Iğdır FK home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Amed away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Amed to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 35% / 24% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Iğdır FK and 1.60 for Amed, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Iğdır FK win35%

Draw24%

Amed win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.9%
1–28.7%
2–18.0%
0–17.4%
1–06.8%

Recent form

Iğdır FK

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Batman Petrolspor · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Muğlaspor · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mardin 1969 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs İstanbulspor · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Manisa F.K. · 4-2 (W)

Amed

2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Beşiktaş · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Başakşehir · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kasımpaşa · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-31T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Trabzonspor · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Kocaelispor · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kayserispor	10	8	1	1	17	25
2	Iğdır FK	10	6	2	2	6	20
3	Bursaspor	9	6	1	2	8	19
4	Batman Petrolspor	10	6	1	3	3	19
5	Keçiörengücü	10	4	5	1	9	17
6	Mardin 1969	9	4	3	2	5	15
7	Sarıyer	10	4	3	3	-1	15
8	Antalyaspor	10	5	0	5	-2	15
9	Bandırmaspor	10	3	5	2	9	14
10	Fatih Karagümrük	9	3	4	2	1	13
11	Sivasspor	10	2	6	2	1	12
12	Muğlaspor	9	2	6	1	1	12
13	Bodrum FK	10	2	5	3	2	11
14	Pendikspor	10	2	4	4	-7	10
15	Manisa F.K.	9	2	3	4	-1	9
16	Esenler Erokspor	9	1	5	3	-5	8
17	Ümraniyespor	9	1	4	4	-3	7
18	Vanspor FK	10	2	3	5	-10	7
19	İstanbulspor	10	1	2	7	-15	5
20	Boluspor	9	0	1	8	-18	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.