· Analysis updated 16:48 UTC
Iğdır FK vs Antalyaspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Iğdır FK and 0.98 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Iğdır FK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Iğdır FK win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Iğdır FK home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Iğdır FK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Iğdır FK and 0.98 for Antalyaspor, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.0%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.2%
Recent form
Iğdır FK
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Batman Petrolspor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Muğlaspor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mardin 1969 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs İstanbulspor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Manisa F.K. · 4-2 (W)
Antalyaspor
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayserispor | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | Iğdır FK | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Bursaspor | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Batman Petrolspor | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Keçiörengücü | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 6 | Mardin 1969 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Sarıyer | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 | Bandırmaspor | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | Sivasspor | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | Muğlaspor | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Bodrum FK | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Pendikspor | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 15 | Manisa F.K. | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 16 | Esenler Erokspor | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Ümraniyespor | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 18 | Vanspor FK | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 5 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Iğdır FK win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.