Stadio Carlo Stagno d'Alcontres · Analysis updated 15:54 UTC
Igea Virtus vs Paternò Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Igea Virtus and 0.73 for Paternò, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Igea Virtus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Igea Virtus win
74.1% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Igea Virtus home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Paternò away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 0 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.7%
- 1–010.7%
- 3–010.1%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–17.8%
Recent form
Igea Virtus
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vigor Lamezia · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Messina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vibonese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Savoia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ragusa · 0-1 (L)
Paternò
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nissa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs CastrumFavara · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Reggina · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Milazzo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sambiase · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-22T14:00:00.000Z · Igea Virtus 2-0 Paternò (Serie D - Girone I)
- 2025-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · Igea Virtus 2-0 Paternò (Serie D - Girone I)
- 2025-02-23T14:00:00.000Z · Igea Virtus 0-1 Paternò (Serie D - Girone I)
- 2024-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · Igea Virtus 0-1 Paternò (Serie D - Girone I)
- 2024-09-01T13:00:00.000Z · Igea Virtus 0-1 Paternò (Coppa Italia Serie D)
Serie D - Girone I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reggina | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 2 | Sambiase | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Licata | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | Calcio Avola | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Vibonese | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | Igea Virtus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Milazzo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Digiesse PraiaTortora | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | Nissa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | AC Palermo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Vigor Lamezia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | Siracusa | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 13 | CastrumFavara | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Modica | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Gela | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Trapani 1905 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Ragusa | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Igea Virtus win, at 74.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.