Igea Virtus vs Vibonese Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Igea Virtus and 1.10 for Vibonese, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Igea Virtus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Igea Virtus home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vibonese away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Igea Virtus win40%

Draw28%

Vibonese win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.1%
1–011.9%
0–110.5%
0–09.5%
2–18.2%

Recent form

Igea Virtus

2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vigor Lamezia · 1-4 (L)
2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Messina · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vibonese · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Savoia · 0-3 (L)
2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ragusa · 0-1 (L)

Vibonese

2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Digiesse PraiaTortora · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nissa · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Palermo · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Igea Virtus · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Siracusa · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-22T15:00:00.000Z · Igea Virtus 2-1 Vibonese (Serie D - Girone I)
2025-11-30T13:30:00.000Z · Igea Virtus 1-0 Vibonese (Serie D - Girone I)
2025-02-16T13:30:00.000Z · Igea Virtus 2-1 Vibonese (Serie D - Girone I)
2024-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · Igea Virtus 0-0 Vibonese (Serie D - Girone I)
2024-03-17T14:00:00.000Z · Igea Virtus 2-1 Vibonese (Serie D - Girone I)
2023-11-05T14:00:00.000Z · Igea Virtus 0-3 Vibonese (Serie D - Girone I)

Serie D - Girone I table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Reggina	8	6	1	1	15	19
2	Sambiase	8	5	2	1	6	17
3	Licata	8	5	2	1	2	17
4	Calcio Avola	8	5	1	2	1	16
5	Vibonese	8	4	3	1	10	15
6	Igea Virtus	8	4	2	2	4	14
7	Milazzo	8	4	1	3	-1	13
8	Digiesse PraiaTortora	8	3	3	2	6	12
9	Nissa	8	2	3	3	-1	9
10	AC Palermo	7	2	2	3	0	8
11	Vigor Lamezia	8	2	2	4	-6	8
12	Siracusa	8	4	2	2	5	7
13	CastrumFavara	8	2	1	5	-2	7
14	Modica	7	2	1	4	-3	7
15	Gela	8	1	4	3	-2	6
16	Trapani 1905	8	3	0	5	-7	4
17	Ragusa	8	0	3	5	-7	3
18	Enna	8	0	1	7	-20	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.