Estadio Antonio Moreno de Mello · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Iguatu vs Tuna Luso Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Iguatu and 0.89 for Tuna Luso, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Iguatu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Iguatu win
61.7% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Iguatu home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Iguatu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 22% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Iguatu and 0.89 for Tuna Luso, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.5%
- 2–011.1%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.1%
Recent form
Iguatu
- 2026-07-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Nacional AM · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nacional AM · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Maguary PE · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Maguary PE · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-27T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tuna Luso · 1-1 (D)
Tuna Luso
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Iguatu win, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.